Sink the Liberals, pollster tells NDP

There’s little reason for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath to support the provincial Liberal budget when it’s released tomorrow, says a veteran Sudbury-based pollster.

Paul Seccaspina, CEO of Oraclepoll Research, said with Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak already committed to voting against the budget, the timing is right for the NDP to let the minority Liberal government fall.

“If I’m the NDP, I’m taking a run at it,” said Seccaspina said. “They’re smelling government again.”

Horwath has set out a number of conditions for supporting the budget, the first since Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne was elected to replace Premier Dalton McGuinty. In Sudbury on April 28, Horwath outlined her requirements.

“If the budget gets results for people, in terms of youth unemployment, in terms of affordability of life with auto insurance rates going down,” she said.

“If it fixes our home-care system, with a five-day home care guarantee; if it closes corporate tax loopholes ... or (opens) new corporate tax loopholes, to let corporations write off their GST on entertainment and wining and dining their clients; and instead invests in things that make a difference for ordinary people, then we can support it.”

Even if that lengthy list is met, Seccaspina said there’s nothing in it for Horwath to give Wynne more time to engage Ontarians and possibly reverse the party’s fortunes.

“They’re going to have to pull the plug here,” he said. “Horwath has got a real strong halo effect going right now. She can run on this huge popularity wave. Wynne’s numbers have improved, but she’s a big unknown to the electorate.”

He said the Tories have little hope of gaining ground, because Leader Tim Hudak has failed to deliver a coherent message. Most polls show no party would win a majority if an election is called, although Horwath is consistently rated the most popular leader, followed by Wynne.

“Hudak, he’s not going to get any better, right? He is what he is,” he said. “So (the NDP) have nothing to gain to prop up this Liberal government. And you can only go to the well so many times criticizing a government that you keep propping up.”

With NDP incumbent France Gélinas a lock in Nickel Belt, Seccaspina said Sudbury is there for the taking for the party, a pattern he’s seen in a number of ridings across the province.

In Sudbury, longtime Liberal MPP Rick Bartolucci, a former cabinet minister, is stepping down. He barely clung to his seat in 2011, edging out NDP candidate Paul Loewenberg, who had no previous experience in politics.

“The NDP almost won with a candidate with no name recognition,” Seccaspina said. “The party itself in Sudbury, you could almost say it doesn’t matter who they run, it’s the party affiliation that will take them a long, long, long way.”

Polling in December by Oraclepoll in Greater Sudbury gave the NDP a 20-point lead over the Liberals and a more than 30-point lead over the Tories.

It’s a pattern he said is being repeated across the province, with ridings turning to the NDP largely because they are tired of the Liberals, and prefer Horwath to Hudak.

Wynne’s approach has been to appeal to left-leaning voters who traditionally switch between the Liberals and the NDP, Seccaspina said.

But like Ernie Eves, who followed Mike Harris as head of the Tories, or even Paul Martin, who succeeded Jean Chretien as federal Liberal leader, Wynne faces an electorate that’s tired of the governing party.

A sure sign of trouble is the fact no one has stepped forward to run to replace Bartolucci, Seccaspina said, even with the possibility of an election.

“There’s a lot of factors going on in Sudbury, just as there’s a lot of factors causing the Liberals to flag in the province,” he said. “There’s a lack of star candidates — or any candidate — to come out of the woodwork to run.”

When he was in Sudbury on April 27, Hudak pledged to reverse some controversial Liberal decisions, such as restoring the slots program at Sudbury Downs, and also vowing to subsidize hydro rates to entice Cliffs to develop the Ring of Fire and build a smelter in Capreol.

But he lacks the conservative economic message that allowed Harris and Prime Minister Stephen Harper to break through in Ontario, Seccaspina said.

“One day he’s talking about chain gangs, the next day he’s talking about the LCBO sale — and voters don’t want to hear about it.”

And in Sudbury, with its strong labour past and traditional lack of Tory support, he said it would be a huge shock if the party won the riding.

Finance Minister Charles Sousa will unveil the budget Thursday afternoon.

In a release Wednesday, Greater Sudbury Mayor Marianne Matichuk said she will be at Queen’s Park for the budget, at Bartolucci’s invitation. She hopes funding will be announced that will allow the city to proceed with a major roads project.

“The budget is expected to signal a new round of infrastructure funding for Ontario municipalities, money needed to help with projects such as Maley Drive,” Matichuk said in a news release.