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Latest poll has Thibeault leading Shawbonquit 32%-28%

A poll conducted Monday night by Mainstreet Technologies has Liberal candidate Glenn Thibeault with 32 per cent support, ahead of NDP rival Suzanne Shawbonquit by four per cent heading into Thursday's byelection in Sudbury.
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Liberal candidate Glenn Thibeault, left, NDP candidate Suzanne Shawbonquit and independent Andrew Olivier share a lighter moment at Wednesday's debate, put on by CBC Sudbury and held at St. Andrew's in downtown Sudbury. Photo by Darren MacDonald.
A poll conducted Monday night by Mainstreet Technologies has Liberal candidate Glenn Thibeault with 32 per cent support, ahead of NDP rival Suzanne Shawbonquit by four per cent heading into Thursday's byelection in Sudbury.

Independent candidate Andrew Olivier is polling third at 14 per cent, followed by Progressive Conservative Paula Peroni at nine per cent and Green Party candidate David Robinson at four per cent. The robocall-style poll found 13 per cent cent of voters undecided, with many of them indicating they may not vote at all.

However, David Valentin, vice-president of Mainstreet Technologies, said byelections are harder to predict because turnout is almost always lower than for general elections. While estimates from Elections Ontario found that more people cast ballots in advance polls than in the June election, Valentin still predicted a lower turnout.

“I still don't expect the actual turnout will be higher than the general election turnout, especially considering the weather could play a factor,” he said. “While we have a very low undecided rate – 13 per cent – most are saying they may not show up to the polls.”

The lower turnout will hurt an independent candidate like Olivier, Valentin said, because he won't have a big-party machine to get his supporters to the polls.

“One question mark is – what kind of operation will Mr. Olivier have?” he said. “It's tough to say, because he has been campaigning hard. So what kind of ground organization he's created to go along with it is a complete mystery.

“But he doesn't have a political party backing him, of course. The NDP, I'm sure, has a political machine, so do the Liberal Party and the Conservatives. So Mr. Olivier may not get his 14 per cent.”

Another variable, Valentin said, is the turnout among the First Nations community in the city, who would be more likely to support Shawbonquit. Traditionally, he said indigenous voters are less likely to participate in phone polls, making it harder to evaluate their voting intentions. And students – a traditional source of support for the NDP – are less likely to vote in a byelection.

But with all the “twists and turns” that have taken place during the campaign, they could be more engaged than usual.

“There's still the potential for an upset, because of the way byelections work,” he said. “It's hard to predict these things.

“But if you look at the numbers, it slightly favours Glenn … Love him or hate him, enough people seem prepared to vote for him … But we'll see Thursday what the results are. This is just one snapshot in time, about what people were thinking on Monday.”

The Mainstreet Technologies survey was conducted Monday evening. A total of 882 people responded, and the results are considered accurate plus or minus 3.38 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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Darren MacDonald

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