Federal Liberals in Sudbury will nominate a candidate March 28, but no one's sure whether it will be for a byelection or for a full election.
Longtime Liberal Gary Duhaime said there are plenty of rumours Prime Minister Stephen Harper will call an early vote, but it's all speculation.
“Mr. Harper might call a byelection," Duhaime said. "But I think everyone has been speculating that there will be a spring election. And there have been some indicators of that -- one being the budget was delayed. So anything is possible."
Two people are running for the Sudbury nomination – local lawyer and businessman Paul Lefebvre and former mayor Marianne Matichuk. Neither candidate returned messages seeking comment for this story. The seat has been vacant since January, when former NDP MP Glenn Thibeault resigned to run – successfully – for the provincial Liberals in the Feb. 5 byelection.
Harper has until the end of June to set a date for the vote, although there's no restrictions on when it must be held. With a federal election due in October, it's possible that voters in Sudbury could elect someone in a byelection, only to have to go to the polls again weeks later.
"He'll surprise us,” was as close as Duhaime would get to making a prediction. "If I was a betting man, I don't know. It's a tough one to call."
While he wouldn't say how many memberships were sold in support of Lefebvre's and Matichuk's bid for the nomination, Duhaime did say it was substantial.
"Can't really tell you anything other than it's a high number," he said. "But I'm impressed with the number of new members that we now have."
Two factors have helped increase support for the party, he said: the fact the seat is now vacant, and, of course, the popularity of new Leader Justin Trudeau.
"That's had a big impact on memberships right across the country, not only here in Sudbury," Duhaime said.
Will Trudeau be here for the nomination meeting?
"No, Justin, from what I understand, will likely not be there," he said.
However, Tyler Banham, president of the Ontario branch of the federal Liberal Party, will be at the meeting. In fact, once local preparations for the meeting are complete, the federal party takes over.
"It's taken right out of our hands,” Duhaime said. “The meeting is called by the party. They run the meeting and the voting. That gives us transparency at the local level."
With only two candidates, there won't be a ranked ballot similar to the one used for the Liberal nomination meeting held last month in Nickel Belt, where four candidates were in the race. When asked why there are fewer candidates in Sudbury, a traditionally Liberal riding, Duhaime said their candidate search committee had more people interesting in running.
"We had, at one time, three potential contestants that were interested in running, and for various reasons, they indicated to me that they couldn't carry on," he said.
So two dropped out before Matichuk declared her candidacy.
While Trudeau's popularity and the fact they won't have to face an incumbent is a plus, Duhaime said he expects a close contest whenever the vote is called.
"It will be an interesting, three-way race between the major parties here in Sudbury," he said. "I don't take anything for granted. It will be a tough election, as every election is.
"You try not to make any mistakes, you try to get your candidate to every door and talk about the issues that will affect Sudbury and the issues that will affect Northern Ontario."
The March 28 meeting will be held at the Radisson Hotel in downtown Sudbury, with speeches beginning at 1 p.m. Voting closes at 4 p.m. Candidates had to sign up new members by *Feb. 27 for them to be eligible to vote. They will have to show ID in order to receive a ballot.
*Note: the original story incorrectly stated the deadline at March 6. Northern Life apologizes for the error.
