Mild winter and perhaps an early spring ahead for Sudbury

Fear not Sudburians, after a few brutal winters, the 2015-16 winter is expected to be milder than normal thanks to El Niño.

Temperatures will be slightly above seasonal averages this winter and the cold snaps will not be nearly as harsh.

Starting in December, the forecast is already staying the course with what Weather Network meteorologist Kelly Sonnenburg has projected for the Nickel City.

“Looking at the current seven-day trend, Sudbury is at or above the seasonal averages for this time of year,” said Sonnenburg. “The seasonal average for this time of year is around -3 and December as a whole is around -4.”

January and February are always the coldest months of the season, but they are also projected to be slightly milder than average, mainly in that the cold spells will not stick around for as long as they have in the last few years.

“Sudbury will still get the cold spells, but they won't be as prolonged,” said Sonnenburg. “Rather than sticking around for four or five days, they will break up after a day or two.”

Though the snow has held off for the most part thus far, Sonnenburg says that Sudbury can expect to see close to their seasonal average of around 200 cm of snow with the majority falling in December.

The final month of the year averages around 70 cm, and snowfall tapers off into January and February with the two months seeing 65 cm and 58 cm respectively.

Where things get tricky with a milder winter is the increased probability of freezing rain and flash freezes due to temperatures fluctuating above and below the freezing mark.

“Southern Ontario has been more tricky to forecast (than Central Ontario) because with an El Niño you see a more active storm pattern up the U.S. East coast and into the Maritimes, that could end up influencing Sudbury if those systems track further west we could end up seeing more of a messy mix of precipitation if we have fluctuating temperatures,” said Sonnenburg.

“We will be dealing with a more wide range of precipitation types and not just snow.”

This year's El Niño is a bit different however, as Sudbury might actually get to see a spring season for a change, rather than jumping from winter to summer in a span of two weeks.

“An El Niño doesn't usually have a reputation for an early spring, but because this one is looking a bit different and does appear that it will be weakening through the winter months, that might end up trending towards spring arriving on time or even a bit early,” said Sonnenburg.

“March will likely start off wintery, but it looks like we will see spring arrive on time.”