Sudbury must deal with population bulge

A long period of economic decline that started in 1971 and continued until the turn of the century had a profound impact on the city's population, members of the planning committee were told Monday evening.

Russell Mathew, of Hemson Consulting, delivered a report projecting employment and population trends for the next 25 years in Greater Sudbury. The report predicts Sudbury will eventually return to its historic population high of 174,000 people of 1971.

In fact, if more bullish growth estimates hold true, the city could have 188,000 by 2036, Mathew said. For that to happen, however, he said the city will need immigrants to replace the large number of people aged 45-60 expected to retire.

There's a huge bulge of workers in that demographic, he said, because decades of poor economic performance forced younger workers to leave Greater Sudbury. That generation of people raised also raised their kids away from the city. Older workers remained, creating a large generation gap that will have to be filled through immigration, Mathew said.

“The effect of that out-migration on the city is quite profound,” he said. “But the outlook really is the future is going to be better than the past.”
Sudburians can expected a couple of decades of solid economic growth, Mathew said, thanks to investments in the local mining industry and continued demand for metals in China and India, both emerging powers with a market of more than one billion people each.

Mathew was delivering Growth Outlook to 2036, a consultants report that aims to help the city prepare for planning and growth in the next 25 years. It will help determine updates to the Official Plan, the main document used to guide all planning decisions in the city.

While our reliance on the mining industry has declined over the decades, it's still the largest single employer, with 6,000 jobs tied directly to mining, and another 10,000 in mining-related services. And tied into the recovery of mining is the surging economies in China and India.

“While conditions in the nickel mining industry will no doubt ebb and flow over the coming years as global demand, supply and prices fluctuate, as long as the Chinese and Indian economies continue to grow there is good reason to anticipate that Sudbury will do well,” the report concludes.

Tied to economic growth is our ability to replace the large segment of workers who will be retiring over the next 25 years. The projections assume the combination of retiring workers who stay in Sudbury and immigrants coming here to replace them will drive population growth.

The projections also forecast an increasing reliance on international immigration, as opposed to people moving here from other parts of Ontario or Canada. The size of households is also expected to decline, from an average of 2.33 today to 2.18 by 2036. That's expected to lead to a demand for more condos and apartments, as opposed to the single-detached family homes that have dominated the market for decades.

With so many people retiring, many sectors of the economy will find it difficult to find replacement workers, having a positive effect on unemployment.
“We have forecast a gradual decline in unemployment rates from an estimated 8.5% in 2011 down to a low of about 5% by the early 2030s,” the report says. “This is consistent with changes expected elsewhere in Ontario.”

Health care, retail, education, local government and home businesses will continue to account for one of every five jobs in Sudbury.

“In Greater Sudbury, this is about one job for every 4.2 persons because health and education services and some commercial services are being provided to a much larger market area than the city itself,” the report concludes.

Mathew said strong population and building growth is expected in Sudbury, the Valley and Walden, but all areas expected to grow. But that was a concern to Ward 4 Coun. Evelyn Dutrisac, who said she's worried the report will discourage developers from building in places like Chelmsford in her ward.

“People should have the right to live where they want in Greater Sudbury,” Dutrisac said.